Estimation of torsional-flutter probability in flexible bridges considering randomness in flutter derivatives

Torsional-flutter instability is an aeroelastic phenomenon of interest to the bridge engineer, corresponding to a torsionally unstable vibration regime of the deck driven by wind excitation and appearing beyond a certain critical wind velocity. In this study a method for the derivation of the flutter probability for long-span bridges with bluff decks is proposed.In the first part of this study the deterministic problem is addressed. In contrast with the classical solution method in the frequency domain based on a numerical procedure for assessing the critical wind velocity, a single-mode “closed-form” algorithm for the derivation of the critical velocity was investigated. A polynomial representation of the aeroelastic-loading coefficients (flutter derivatives), necessary for torsional-flutter analysis, was utilized.In the second part an algorithm for estimating the torsional-flutter probability was developed, considering randomness in bridge properties, and flutter derivatives in particular due to their preeminent role in torsional-flutter velocity estimation.Experimental errors in the extraction of flutter derivatives from wind tunnel tests were analyzed. The “closed-form” algorithm, developed in the first part, allowed for a direct numerical solution of the flutter probability in a simple way.The torsional-flutter probability for three simulated bridge models with rectangular closed-box and truss-type girder deck was numerically determined. A set of experimental data, available from the literature, was employed. The simulations enabled the validation of the proposed algorithm.