基于云推理自回归算法的大坝变形预测

土石坝的时效变形具有一定的单调性和不确定性。云模型较好地把定性概念的模糊性和随机性结合在一起,对不确定性问题的解决有着很强的鲁棒性。将云模型及云推理运用于土石坝的变形预测中,采用云推理自回归算法可初步解决土石坝变形预测中所存在的模糊性和随机性问题。预测实例表明:该方法预测精度较高,预测值与实测值基本吻合。

Regression Algorithm Based on Cloud Reasoning of Dam Deformation Forecast

Earth dam deformation of aging has some monotonicity and uncertainty.The cloud model is a qualitative concept and its quantitative expression of uncertainty between the conversion models,and it can combine concept’s fuzziness and randomness,to solve the problem of uncertainty.This article used cloud models and cloud reasoning to predict the earth-rockfill dam deformation,and initially solved the earth-rockfill dam deformation prediction of the existence of fuzzy and stochastic problems.The results show that the prediction accuracy of the method is higher,and it is consistent with the actual values.