突发重金属水污染事故环境风险评价模型研究

为降低我国重金属突发水污染事故发生频率、减轻事故危害,针对目前突发水污染事故环境风险评价缺乏系统性研究的现状,构建了基于蒙特卡洛模拟法的突发水污染事故环境风险评价模型,提出了一套计算突发水污染事故环境风险的方法。该模型由突发水污染事故概率分析模型、重金属迁移转化分相模型、突发水污染事故损失评估模型耦合而成。应用该模型对佛山市的环境风险进行了评价,结果表明:计算时间段为固定值时,重大风险值和特大风险值之和为8%;计算时间段为区间值时,重大风险值和特大风险值之和为21%,说明该地区的环境风险已经十分严峻。

The Study of Environmental Risk Assessment Model of Sudden Water Pollution Accidents

In order to reduce the heavy metal burst water pollution accident frequency and accident hazards happened in China and in the light of the present situation of insufficient systematic study on the environmental risk assessment of pollution incidents,this article built the Environmental Risk Assessment Model of Sudden Water Pollution Accidents,put forward a method of calculation of sudden water pollution accident environmental risk.The model consists of the Frequency Analysis Sub-Model of Pollution Accidents,the Phase-separation Sub-model of Transfer and Transformation of Heavy Metal and the Damage Assessment Sub-model of Pollution Accidents.At last,Foshan is studied as an object,the model is used to evaluate the environmental risk of Foshan,the results show that when the computing time is a fixed value,the total of significant risk and serious risk is 8%,when the computing time is a Interval value,the total of significant risk and serious risk is up to 21%.It shows that the environmental risk has been very serious in this area.