| 泾河年径流量BP神经网络模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王峥,马孝义,吕静渭,尹京川,胡杰华.泾河年径流量BP神经网络模型研究[J].人民黄河,2012,34(4):26-29. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王峥 马孝义 吕静渭 尹京川 胡杰华 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 西北农林科技大学旱区农业水土工程教育部重点实验室,陕西杨凌,712100
2. 甘肃省水利厅水利工程建设质量与安全管理中心,甘肃兰州,730030 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家“863”计划项目(2011AA100509);“十二五”国家科技支撑计划项目(2011BAD25B03,2012BAD08B01) |
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| 摘 要： | 以1957—2000年的实测降水序列和泾河年径流量序列为研究对象,利用EMD法和GA建立了泾河年径流量的BP神经网络模型。分析结果表明:泾河流域年降水量变化可能存在准2～3、5～7、10～13、18～22 a的周期;基于EMD的年径流量BP神经网络模型预测值的相对误差为-4.71%～8.21%,基于GA的年径流量BP神经网络模型预测值的相对误差为2.25%～12.22%。
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| 关 键 词： | EMD GA BP神经网络 年径流量 泾河 |
Research on BP Neural Network Model for Runoff in Jinghe River Basin |
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| WANG Zheng
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MA Xiao-yi
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LV Jing-wei
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YIN Jing-chuan
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HU Jie-hua.Research on BP Neural Network Model for Runoff in Jinghe River Basin[J].Yellow River,2012,34(4):26-29. |
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| Authors: | WANG Zheng MA Xiao-yi LV Jing-wei YIN Jing-chuan HU Jie-hua |
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| Affiliation: | 1(1.Key Laboratory for Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid Area of Ministry of Education,Northwest A& F University,Yangling 712100,China;2.Managing Center of Hydraulic Engineering Quality and Security,Water Conservancy Department of Gansu Province,Lanzhou 730030,China) |
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| Abstract: | An annual precipitation-runoff forecasting BP neural network model based on EMD and GA was established,which using the rainfall data from 1957 to 2000 of 4 typical hydrologic stations in Jinghe River basin and the annual runoff as a research object.The results show that the precipitation series has periods that about 2-3,5-7,10-13 and 18-22 years.And using the BP neural network model based on EMD to predict annual runoff,the relative error of predictive value between 4.71% and 8.21%,while using BP neural network model based on genetic algorithm,the relative error of predictive value between 2.25% and 12.22%. |
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| Keywords: | EMD GA BP neural network annual runoff Jinghe River |
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