西安市水资源经济系统SD模型研究

在全面了解西安市水资源经济系统现状及其内部结构的基础上,结合西安市现状,运用系统动力学方法,构建了西安市水资源经济系统SD模型,预测了西安市雨水资源利用的前景和经济发展趋势。结果表明:如果西安市按照现有模式发展,则未来经济会受到水资源匮乏问题的严重制约;在其他条件不变的情况下,提高农业用水比例、雨水资源投资比例及雨水资源价值系数,从价格和数量两方面促进雨水资源综合利用,可以在增加城市供水量的同时促进经济发展,实现水资源经济协调可持续发展。

Study on SD Model of Water Resources Economic System in Xi' an City

On the basis of a comprehensive understanding of the present situation and its internal structure in the economic system of Xi’an water resources,combining with current situation in Xi’an City and using the system dynamics method,it built the economic system SD model of water resources in Xi’an City for predicting the rainwater resources utilization and economic development trend in the future.The results show that a) if Xi’an development in accordance with the existing model,the future economy will be seriously be affected by water scarcity problem;b) if improving the ratios of agricultural water,the investment proportion of rain water resources and the value coefficient of rainwater resources in other conditions of invariable and promoting rainwater resources comprehensive utilization from the price and quantity,it can increase the water supply in the city and promote economic development,finally realizing the economic sustainable development of water resources.