基于模糊层次分析法的配电网重复多发性停电风险评估

介绍重复多发性停电的概念。对95598停电投诉记录、配电网抢修管理平台、配电网运行监测平台等信息系统中的停电数据进行汇总分析,并进行实际调研工作。归纳配电网重复多发性停电常见原因,针对各种原因分别给出影响因数指标,用以衡量配电网重复停电概率水平。应用模糊层次分析法建立指标评价体系,分别从装备水平、运行维护水平和网架结构水平3个方面对配电网重复多发性停电发生概率的影响情况进行评价。针对某实际停电实例进行重复多发性停电风险评估,获得了重复多发性停电综合概率值。

Risk assessment of repeated multiple blackouts for distribution network based on fuzzy AHP

The concept of repeated multiple blackouts is introduced. The power outage data of information systems of 95598 power outage complaint recording, distribution network repair and management platform, and distribution network operation and monitoring platform are summarized and analyzed, and the actual investigation work is carried out. The common reasons of repeated multiple blackouts of distribution network are summarized, and the influence factor indexes are given for each reason to measure the probability of the repeated multiple blackouts. The index evaluation system is established by fuzzy AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process)to evaluate the probability of the repeated multiple blackouts from three aspects, i. e. equipped level, operation and maintenance level, and grid structure level. The risk assessment of repeated multiple blackouts is carried out for an actual power outage case, and the comprehensive probability is obtained.