基于ISM的装甲车辆全寿命周期风险分析模型

针对装甲车辆自身特点,对其全寿命周期风险识别与评估进行了深入研究。首先通过霍尔三维结构原理探讨了装甲车辆全寿命周期的主要风险类别;其次,运用解释结构模型(ISM)对各风险源之间的关系进行探索;最后,针对解释结构模型对风险总体水平评价的不足,提出了一种改进方法——解释层次分析法,并运用它对装甲车辆全寿命风险作实证研究。

Life Cycle Risk Analysis Model of Armored Vehicles Based on ISM

According to the specific characteristics of armored vehicle,this paper studies on the whole life cycle of risk identification and risk evaluation.Firstly,based on the life-cycle risk identification,it dis-cussed the major risk categories of amphibious infantry fighting vehicle life cycle by Hall three-dimension-al.Secondly,the interpretive structural model （ISM）method was used to explore the relationship between risks based on Hall principle.Finally,against the disappointment of the evaluation model,based on sys-tem engineering theory,it proposed an improved analysis method -interpretation of the analytic hierarchy process （IAHP）,and used the method to make an empirical study on armored vehicle life-cycle risk.