基于保险理赔数据的水电企业风险评估研究

为解决水利工程风险评估中主观评分法存在的随机性和主观性强、评估结果不理想等问题,提出了一种基于保险理赔数据的改进评分方法。该方法通过对保险理赔数据的统计分析得到判断矩阵,并利用AHP法对风险指标排序。考虑到当前水电企业可用保险理赔数据较少,引入风险相对发生概率与风险损失区间的标度确定方法以提高风险评估的准确性。以某水电企业为例,验证了该方法的可行性和有效性。结果表明:不同风险因素的风险权重有明显差异,该水电企业后期可根据风险权重排序,分级制定风险防控措施,应加大在设备故障、暴雨、洪水等方面的风险防控投入,适当减缓在电压波动、绝缘击穿、过电压等方面的投入。该企业应依据保险理赔数据,实时更新风险权重,为风险防控决策提供实时参考意见。

Risk assessment of a hydropower enterprise based on the settlement data of insurance claims

In the risk assessment of water conservancy projects, the application of subjective scoring method always result in unsatisfactory evaluation results due to the randomness and subjectivity of this method. In order to solve this problem, an improved scoring method based on the settlement data of insurance claims is proposed. The judgment matrix is obtained by statistical analysis of the settlement data, and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method is used to sort the risk index. Considering that there are few insurance claims available in hydropower enterprises, the scale determination method of relative probability of risk occurrence and risk loss range is introduced to improve the accuracy of the risk assessment. The feasibility and effectiveness of the method are verified by the case study of a hydropower plant. The results show that there are obvious differences in risk weights of different risk factors, so hierarchical risk prevention and control measures should be formulated according to the risk weight ranking. It is suggested that this hydropower plant should increase the investment in the risk control of equipment failure, rainstorm, flood, etc., meanwhile reduce the investment in the risk control of voltage fluctuation, insulation breakdown and overvoltage, etc. To provide a reliable reference for the decision-making of risk prevention and control, the risk weights should be updated in real time according to the settlement data of insurance claims.