改进严重度模型下计及二次系统影响的电网风险评估

提出一种改进严重度模型下计及二次系统影响的电力系统风险评估方法。首先,分析了继电保护隐性故障、自动重合闸成功率以及自动切负荷装置对风险评估的影响,并建立相应的风险评估模型；其次,在基于效应理论的严重度模型中引入重要程度因子,提出改进严重度模型的风险指标量化方法。对改进IEEE-RTS79 节点测试系统进行风险评估,验证了所提模型及方法的合理性与有效性,结果表明,相比于传统风险评估方法,本文所提评估方法更合理、更符合系统实际；通过评估结果辨识电力系统中薄弱环节,为电力系统运维检修和风险管控提供参考和依据。 #$NL关键词：二次系统；隐性故障；改进严重度；风险评估；风险管控#$NL中图分类号：TM715

Grid risk assessment based on the improved severity model considering the influence of secondary system

The existing power grid security risk assessment methods do not fully consider the impact of different primary equipment, load importance and secondary system performance. Grid static security risk assessment method considering the influence of secondary system based on the improved severity model is proposed. Firstly, the effects of hidden faults of relay protection, automatic reclosing success rate and automatic load-cutting devices on risk assessment are analyzed, and corresponding risk assessment model is established. Then, by quantifying the importance of lines, buses and loads, a risk index quantification method of the improved severity model is proposed which introduces the importance degree factor into severity model. The proposed method is applied to the improved IEEE-RTS79 testing system. It is verified that the proposed model and method can effectively identify the weak links in the power system, and are more in line with the system reality than traditional risk assessment methods. The proposed method can provide a reference for power system operation, maintenance, and risk management.