水资源承载力的集对势-偏联系数评价模型

水资源承载力评价是区域水资源系统可持续发展战略的重要组成部分，然而现行评价方法大多依赖于静态数据构建研究对象与等级标准之间的关联函数，而对信息的动态性考虑不足。针对这个问题，利用集对分析态势评价法和偏联系数方法探索不同等级之间的动态平衡机制，构建了一种融合信息演化的水资源承载力评价模型。首先，参照相关研究成果，获取水资源承载力评价指标体系及等级标准，计算各研究对象的三元评价联系数；其次，针对传统集对势与评价等级值不能在数值上对应的不足，研究提出了集对势特征值的概念，对系统所处的态势及等级进行统一量化表征；然后，分析三元联系数中相邻联系分量之间的演化规律，基于一阶偏联系数方法，利用各分量与相邻分量向该分量的一阶演化值之和刻画联系数对各等级的支持度，进而判定研究对象所处的等级，实现对研究对象的初步评价；挖掘同反分量之间的深度迁移，利用二阶偏联系数对模型进行拓展研究；最后，综合以上结果对水资源承载力进行评价分析。将模型应用于合肥市2009-2018年水资源承载力评价的结果表明：合肥市水资源承载力一直处于临界状态，但总体上呈稳中有升的态势，与以往研究结果一致，验证了本模型的合理性与有效性。与置信度阈值判别法的对比研究结果表明本文所构建的模型可以克服了一定的主观性，且具有较好的可拓展性。

Evaluation Model of Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based on Set Pair Potential and Partial Connection Number

The evaluation of water resources carrying capacity is an important part of sustainable development strategy of regional water resources system. However, the current evaluation methods often rely on static data to construct the correlation function between the research object and the level standard, and the information evolution is not considered enough. In response to this problem, in this paper, set pair analysis potential evaluation method and the partial connection number method were used to explore the dynamic balance mechanism between the different levels, and a new water resources carrying capacity evaluation model was constructed. Firstly, according to the relevant research results, the evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity and the grade standard were obtained, and the ternary evaluation connection numbers of each research object were calculated; secondly, based on the first-order partial connection number method, the support degree of the connection number to each level was represented by the sum of each component and the first-order evolution values of adjacent component to this component. Then, the preliminary evaluation of the research object can be realized by judging the grade of research object; mining the depth transfer between the identical and contrary components, using the second-order partial connection number to expand the model. Finally, the water resources carrying capacity was evaluated and analyzed based on the above results. The results of applying the model into the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity of Hefei city from 2009 to 2018 show that the water resources carrying capacity of Hefei city is in a critical state, but on the whole, it shows a steady and rising trend. The consistency with the previous studies verifies the rationality and effectiveness of the model and the comparison with the confidence threshold method show that the proposed model overcomes some subjectivity and has good expansibility.