基于复杂网络属性的电网灾难性事件综合风险评估

宏观上网络的结构属性与微观上设备的电气特性塑造电网灾难性事件的风险。电网灾难性事件作为具有动态时序的事件，需同时评估发生的直接风险和隐含的潜在风险。潜在风险会随着故障的发展，在电网结构中的薄弱环节传播潜藏。当初始故障在电网中开始传播时，直接风险和潜在风险也根据电网固有属性的节点度和节点聚类影响着灾难性事件风险的扩散机制。文中基于不确定风险分析理论和联系数理论，综合考虑故障传播的直接风险和潜在风险，通过节点度和节点聚类系数定量评估故障引发的直接风险与潜在风险之间不确定的关联系数；最终得出故障的综合风险，改进了传统的电网灾难性事件动态风险评估方法。同时兼顾电网具有小世界效应和无标度拓扑的属性，建立兼具两者属性的阿波罗尼电网，通过对人工阿波罗尼电网进行灾难性事件风险评估，验证了所提方法的有效性和可行性，并用西部某地区实际电网验证其合理性。结果证明，所得结果符合工程实际，更完整地刻画了电网灾难性事件的综合风险。

Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Catastrophic Accident in Power System Based on Complex Network

Structural properties of the grid on a macro level and electrical characteristicsof the components on a micro level together determine the risk of catastrophic failures. As a dynamic development process, the catastrophic failure not only needs to consider its direct risk but also the potential risks. Unlike the direct exposure of direct risk, potential risks are spread and hidden along with the inherent properties of network connection. When the risk spreads, the inherent properties of the grid affects the diffusion mechanism of catastrophic failure. Based on uncertainty risk analysis theory and contact number theory, and considering direct risk and potential risk comprehensively, the uncertain correlation coefficient between direct risk and potential risk is quantitatively characterized by degree and clustering coefficient of node. Taking the grid contains small-world effect and scale-free topology into account, the Apollonius power grid is established to demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method, and to verify its rationality by a real power grid in western region. The results prove that the proposed method can meet the practical needs of engineering and describe the comprehensive risk of catastrophic accident in power system more completely.