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Quantitative modeling for risk assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in bloody clams in southern Thailand |
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| Authors: | Yamamoto Akio Iwahori Jun'ichiro Vuddhakul Varaporn Charernjiratragul Wilawan Vose David Osaka Ken Shigematsu Mika Toyofuku Hajime Yamamoto Shigeki Nishibuchi Mitsuaki Kasuga Fumiko |
| Affiliation: | aInfectious Disease Research Division, Hyogo Prefectural Institute of Public Health and Environmental Sciences, 2-1-29 Arata-cho, Hyogo-ku, Kobe, 652-0032, Japan bKochi Medical School, Nankoku, Kochi 783-8505, Japan cDepartment of Microbiology, Faculty of Science, Prince of Songkla University, Hat Yai, 90110, Thailand dBVBA Vose Consulting (Belgium), Iepenstraat 98, 9000 Gent, Belgium eGraduate School of Dentistry, Tohoku University, 4-1 Seiryo-machi, Aoba-ku, Sendai 980-8575, Japan fInfectious Disease Surveillance Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, 1-23-1 Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 162-8640, Japan gNational Institute of Health Sciences, 1-18-1 Kamiyoga, Setagaya-ku, Tokyo 158-8501, Japan hCenter for Southeast Asian Studies, Kyoto University, 46 Shimoadachi-cho, Yoshida, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501, Japan |
| Abstract: | A risk assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in bloody clams (Anadara granosa) consumed in southern Thailand was conducted. This study estimated the prevalence and concentration of pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus in bloody clams at harvest and retail stages; and during this process, methods to detect the total and pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus were investigated. Consumption of bloody clams and cooking efficiency were studied using interviews and onsite observation of consumers. A beta-Poisson dose–response model was used to estimate probability of illness applying estimation methods for the most likely parameter values presented by USFDA. Microbial and behavioral data were analyzed by developing a stochastic model and the simulation gave a mean number of times a person would get ill with V. parahaemolyticus by consuming bloody clams at 5.6 × 10− 4/person/year. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated the fraction of people who did not boil the clams properly was the primary factor in increasing risk. This study serves as an example of how a microbiological risk assessment with limited data collection and international cooperation leads to valuable local insight. |
| Keywords: | Quantitative microbiological risk assessment Vibrio parahaemolyticus Bloody clams Bayesian method International cooperation |
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