基于模糊故障树的气球载雷达系统安全性分析

由于气球载雷达系统缺乏现场安全数据,无法沿用传统故障树方法对系统安全性进行分析,在气球载雷达系统安全性分析中给出模糊故障树分析方法。采用专家组评估和梯形模糊数相结合的原理得到故障树中基本事件发生的模糊概率,并使用梯形模糊数的中值计算基本事件的模糊重要度。最后,以系留气球球囊破损为例进行了算例分析,为合理分析气球载雷达系统安全性提供了一种方法。

Safety Analysis of Balloon Radar System Based on Fuzzy Fault-tree

Due to the lack of field safety data in the balloon radar system,the conventional fault-tree method can not be used to analyze the safety of system,this paper presents the fuzzy fault-tree analysis method for the safety analysis in the balloon radar system,which adopts the principle that combining the experts group estimation and the trapezoidal fuzzy number to fetch the fuzzy probability that the basic events occur in the fault-tree,and uses the media of the trapezoidal fuzzy number to calculate the fuzzy import of the basic events, finally performs analysis taking the captive balloon envelope as a calculation example,puts forwards a means for analyzing reasonably the safety of balloon radar system.