| 基于现金流量指标的企业财务困境预警模型构建 |
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| 引用本文： | 张芙蓉.基于现金流量指标的企业财务困境预警模型构建[J].西北纺织工学院学报,2012(3):356-362. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张芙蓉 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国人民银行渭南中心支行,陕西渭南714000 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家统计局项目（2010LB03）;陕西省军民融合研究规划办项目（11JMR15） |
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| 摘 要： | 针对现有企业财务困境预警系统的局限性,从现金流量角度研究企业财务困境的预警问题.通过选取2011年127家ST公司为样本公司和配对样本公司,利用其T-1年至T-6年现金流量数据,在费歇判别分析基础上构建现金流量财务预警模型,并通过ROC曲线对模型判别结果进行检验.结果表明,T-2年模型判别能力最强,T-1年和T-3年模型判别能力较强.
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| 关 键 词： | 现金流量 财务困境 判别分析 模型构建 |
Research on corporate financial distress warning based on cash flow indicators |
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| ZHANG Fu-rong.Research on corporate financial distress warning based on cash flow indicators[J].Journal of Northwest Institute of Textile Science and Technology,2012(3):356-362. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Fu-rong |
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| Affiliation: | ZHANG Fu-rong(Peoples Bank of China,Weinan Central Sub-branch,Weinan,Shaanxi 714000,China) |
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| Abstract: | Aiming at the limitations of the existing corporate financial distress warning systems,corporate financial distress warning of cash flow is studied.127 ST companies in 2011 are selected as the samples and paired samples.Cash flow data of samples and paired samples is used from the year T-1 to the year T-6,and financial distress warning model of cash flow was built based on the Fisher discriminant analysis.Discrimination results of the model is tested by the ROC curve.The results shows that model discriminant in the year T-2 is the strongest,and in the year T-1 and T-3 is stronger. |
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| Keywords: | cash flow financial distress disriminant analysis model construction |
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