基于证据理论的群组DEMATEL改进方法

在群组DEMATEL（决策试验与评价实验室）分析过程中，科学合理地集成群组专家意见是保证群决策有效性的技术核心。然而现有文献不仅没有对群组专家意见的集成机理作出科学合理的解释，而且还存在单专家对因素关系判断过于主观武断的问题。为克服上述缺陷，在概述传统群组DEMATEL及系统分析其缺陷的基础上，提出了一种基于证据理论的群组DEMATEL改进方法。该方法优点在于：一方面以信度函数反映决策信息的不完备性，并通过Dempster组合规则有效集成群组专家意见；另一方面以整体判断思想实现群组专家证据信息的交互。实例验证结果表明，改进方法是科学可行的，有着较强的实际应用可操作性。

Improved group DEMATEL approach based on evidence theory

In group DEMATEL procedures, how to incorporate expert opinion reasonably is an important technology core for ensuring the effectiveness of group decision making. However, there are some drawbacks in existing literature. Not only the integrated mechanism of expert opinion is unclear, but also the way of single expert judgment has some subjectivity and arbitrary. To overcome the above disadvantages, an improved group DEMATEL approach based on evidence theory is presented by overviewing the traditional group DEMATEL method and systematically analyzing its drawbacks. There are two advantages in the improved approach. On the one hand it reflects the uncertainly of expert opinion with confidence belief function, and effectively integrates group expert opinion with Dempster’s combination rule, on the other hand it realizes expert evidence information interaction according to the thought of overall judgment. The improved approach is validated to be reasonable and would be well applied to solve the real world problems.