基于减法集对势的漳河上游水资源冲突风险评价与态势分析研究

为有效预防漳河上游水资源冲突，积极维护地区水安全，科学合理地评价水资源冲突风险和预测风险态势演化尤为重要。基于水量、用水效率、水质、生态环境和社会经济等5个维度构建了水资源冲突风险评价及态势分析框架，运用熵权法和集对分析理论构建了基于减法集对势的水资源冲突风险评价及态势分析模型，对漳河上游2011-2020年的水资源冲突风险进行评价，通过五元减法集对势动态分析风险发展态势。结果表明：漳河上游水资源冲突风险水平较低且呈现下降的态势；3个省份水资源冲突风险等级由高到低依次为山西省、河北省、河南省。从水资源冲突的5个维度来看，河北省需重点关注水量和用水效率引起的冲突风险，河南省整体情况较好，山西省则需重点关注水量、水质和社会经济引起的冲突风险。研究结果对识别漳河上游水资源冲突风险、缓解水事纠纷和维护地区稳定具有重要的现实意义。

Risk assessment and situation analysis of water resources conflicts in the upper reaches of the Zhanghe River based on subtraction set pair potential

Accurate risk assessment of water resources conflicts and prediction of risk situation are vital to the prevention of water resources conflicts in the upper reaches of the Zhanghe River and the safeguarding of regional water security. Based on the five dimensions of water volume, water use efficiency, water quality, ecological environment and socio economy, a risk assessment and situation analysis framework of water resources conflicts was constructed and a model was established using entropy method and set pair analysis based on subtraction set pair potential. Then the model was used to evaluate the risk of water resources conflicts in the upper reaches of the Zhanghe River during the period of 2011-2020. Additionally, the risk development trend was analyzed by five element subtraction set pair potential. The results show that the risk level of water resources conflicts in the upper reaches of the Zhanghe River is low and shows a downward trend. The risk level of water resources conflicts in the three provinces from high to low is Shanxi Province, Hebei Province and Henan Province. From the perspective of five dimensions of water resources conflicts, Hebei Province needs to focus on the conflict risk caused by water volume and water use efficiency; the overall situation in Henan Province is good, whereas Shanxi Province should focus on the conflict risks caused by water volume, water quality and socio economy. The research results are of great practical significance in alleviating water affair disputes, maintaining regional stability and realizing sustainable development in the upper reaches of the Zhanghe River.