基于多米诺效应的化工装置风险评估

在化工园区中,多米诺效应是引发重大事故的原因之一。结合国内外的研究成果阐述了多米诺效应风险评估的程序和辨识多米诺效应的事故场景方法,并运用概率分析的方法对事故场景进行了分析。结合实例,根据初始事故的影响,运用目标设备概率模型对目标设备进行了损坏概率计算,得出了冲击波超压、热辐射对周围设备的损害概率,并进一步分析出冲击波比热辐射在化工装置布置中更重要的影响。多米诺风险评估不仅能有效降低次生灾害的发生率,同时有利于进行土地规划、化工企业布局和事故应急管理等。

RISK ASSESSMENT OF CHEMICAL FACILITY BASED ON DOMINO EFFECT

Domino effect is one of the reasons for majoraccidents.Based on the domestic and international research results,this paper expounds the procedure of risk assessment of domino effect and the method to identify the accident scene of domino effect.It also analyzes the accident scene by probability analysis method.Combined with an example,the probability of target installation damage is calculated by applying probability model of the target installation.The probability of damage from shockwave overpressure and thermal radiation to surrounding equipment is obtained.And from further analysis,it is concluded that shockwave has more impact on the layout of chemical plants.Risk assessment of domino effect not only reduces the incidence of secondary disasters effectively,but also is beneficial to land planning,plant layout,emergency management,etc.