我国光伏产业发展对策探讨

光伏发电是解决能源供应短缺和环境污染问题的有效途径,在国内政策以及外部有利市场环境的推动下,我国太阳能光伏产业发展迅速,在光伏制造业等领域已走在世界前列。2010年,国内光伏电池产量已达9GW,连续4年居世界首位;多晶硅产量已达4.5×104t。但我国光伏发电市场发展规模仍然较小,影响了光伏产业的总体可持续发展。2010年国内新增光伏发电装机容量500MW,仅占全球光伏新增装机容量的3%,国内光伏电池生产的销售市场对外依存度高达95%,产业发展具有极大的危险性。其主要原因是产业规划保守,发展目标低定;发电成本较高,民众承受能力有限;光伏电力的"间歇性"特征以及电网企业的国有垄断地位使得"入网难"问题仍未解决;投资回收期长,资本盈利率不高;地方政府追求短期经济效益,抓快放慢。德国在这方面的发展经验值得借鉴。当前,应在提高光伏发电占新能源产业发展规划比重、降低光伏产业对外依存度的同时,努力降低发电成本,同时大力发展规模储能和智能电网技术,并构建有力的政策支持环境,从根本上提升业界信心,实现我国光伏发电产业的大发展。

Some Thoughts on the Development Strategy of China's Photovoltaic Industry

Promoting PV power generation is an important solution to ensure energy supply and energy security and also to reduce environmental pollution.Pushed forward by domestic policies and favorable external market conditions,the Chinese photovoltaic industry has witnessed leapfrogging development in recent years and the country is now on the industry forefront in several areas including PV product manufacturing.In 2010,China′s solar cell production reached 9GW per year,which was the largest worldwide for the fourth year in a row,and polysilicon production reached 4.5×104t.The size of the domestic PV power generation market,however,is still very small and this has placed restraints on the sustained growth of the PV industry.In 2010,China added 500MW of installed PV power generating capacity,accounting for only 3% of the world′s total new PV power generating capacity.As high as 95% of domestic production of solar cells is currently sold overseas,which puts the sustainability of growth of the domestic PV industry at great risk.The main reasons for this situation include conservative industry planning,excessively low development objectives,high power generation costs,limited affordability of the public,the intermittency of PV-derived power,difficult grid integration due to the monopolization of state-owned grid companies,long period for recovery of investment,low profit margins of capital and local governments′ pursuit of short-term economic returns.China can draw on Germany′s successful experience on this area.China should step up its effort to lower power generation costs and develop large-scale energy storage and smart grid technologies while raising the share of PV power generation in new energy development plans and reducing the reliance of the PV industry on foreign markets and create a robust favorable policy environment to substantially boost the industry′s confidence and promote the rapid growth of the domestic PV industry.