长江水质预测的数学模型

针对长江流域17个观测站(地区)近两年多主要水质指标检测数据,以及干流上7个观测站近一年的基本数据,进行统计,规划求出整个流域的Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ、Ⅴ、及劣Ⅴ水的相互转移的概率矩阵。再根据水污染情况的无后效性即(本段只与前一段有关而与初始状态无关),并逐渐趋于稳定的特点,采用马尔柯夫链(Markov)模型对长江水质未来十年作出预测,并修正有关数据及采取控制Ⅳ、Ⅴ、劣Ⅴ、的方法,使污染控制在20%以内。由河流水质预测一维模型来分析17个站点的污染状况,进而推测出污染源。

Mathematical Model for Predicting Quality of Yangtze River

According to data of water quality of Yangtze River from 17 observance stations in over two years,plus that of 7 observance stations in the mainstream in one year,we account and scheme to find out the interchanging probability matrix of Ⅰ,Ⅱ,Ⅲ,Ⅳ,Ⅴ,and inferior Ⅴ water in the whole stream.Later,according to the non-sequencing characteristic of water corruption(that is that this stage is solemnly relative to former stage,irrelevant to initial stage),also the characteristic that it gradually tends to stabilize,we adopt the Markov chain model to predict the water quality of the Yangtze in the upcoming 10 years,correct relevant data and use ways of controlling Ⅳ,Ⅴ and inferior Ⅴ to make water corruption within 20 percent.Using one dimension predicting model for water quality to analyze corruption of 17 observance stations,and find out the source of corruption.