武器装备可靠性设计保证系数取值方法

工程中为控制设计质量风险，国家军用标准和型号规范均规定装备的可靠性预计结果应至少满足合同规定值1~1.5倍（以下称为设计保证系数）的要求。但设计保证系数的选择缺少理论依据，尤其缺乏精确量化的选择依据。针对这一问题，建立设计保证系数的精确取值参考方法。分析可靠性预计值、规定值、最低可接受值及鉴定试验检验上下限等相关指标的内涵与相互关系，对寿命基于威布尔分布和指数分布的两类主要产品，给出其设计保证系数的选择方法和依据。考虑可靠性提升成本和可靠性指标的上下限约束，给出通用设计保证系数的取值依据。结果表明，该设计保证系数选择方法以及取值表，从可靠性验收试验风险控制角度对可靠性预计指标要求的确定提供了理论参考依据和指导。

A Method for Taking Values of Equipment Reliability Design Assurance Coefficient

For the control of quality risk in a project，the national military standards and model specifications both stipulate that the reliability prediction value of equipment should be at least 1 to 1.5 times the contract value (hereinafter referred to as the design assurance coefficient). However，the selection of design assurance coefficient is lack of theoretical basis，especially the selection basis for precise quantification. In view of this problem， a reference method is established for accurately determining the design assurance coefficient. Based on the discussion of the connotation and interrelationships of related indicators such as the reliability prediction value，the specified value，the minimum acceptable value，and the upper/lower limits of the appraisal test，the selection method and basis for the design assurance coefficients are given for two types of products which their lives are based on Weibull distribution and exponential distribution. Based on this， the upper and lower limit constraints of reliability improvement cost and reliability index are considered，and a general basis is given for the value of design assurance coefficient. The design assurance coefficient selection method and value table proposed in this paper provide theoretical basis and guidance for the determination of reliability prediction index requirements from the perspective of reliability qualification test risk control.