巴东县学堂坪滑坡稳定性分析及安全系数修正

为修正现行规范中安全系数的取值,以巴东县学堂坪滑坡为例,基于可靠度理论,利用Matlab软件编制了改进的传递系数法、罗厄法、简化的简布法、美国陆军工程师团法及蒙特卡洛法程序,探讨了滑坡安全系数与破坏概率之间的关系,并以破坏概率30%时对应的安全系数作为改进的安全系数。结果表明,改进的安全系数随稳定系数同幅变化,建议以改进的安全系数作为滑坡稳定性评价的标准。

Stability Analysis and Safety Factor Correction of Xuetangping Landslide in Badong Country

To improve the safety factor of current specification, taking Xuetangping landslide in Badong County as an example, the Matlab software was utilized to program the Monte Carlo method based on improved transfer coefficient method, Law method, simplified Janbu method and the U.S.Army Corps of Engineers method by using reliability analysis. The relationship between safety factor and failure probability was studied and the improved safety factors were calculated when the failure probability was 30%. The improved safety factors are recommended as the criterion of landslide stability estimation according to the results, which show that the order of improved safety factors is the same as stability coefficients.