沂沭泗流域年降水和年地表水资源量演变趋势

基于沂沭泗流域1956年-2010年的水文资料,运用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall检验、累计距平和小波分析方法对沂沭泗流域年降水、年地表水资源量的演变趋势、变化过程和趋势及周期性进行了分析。结果表明:沂沭泗流域近55a内年降水、年地表水资源量变化趋势基本一致,整体上均呈减少趋势但不显著,预计未来10多年内仍会减少;年降水和年地表水资源量大体经历了丰枯交替5个变化阶段,年地表水资源量减少的趋势比年降水量减少的趋势稍明显;年降水变化具有4a、8a、15a和27a的主周期,年地表水资源量变化具有4a、14a和27a的主周期。趋势表明,未来10多年内沂沭泗流域年降水、年地表水资源量仍会减少

Variation trend analysis of annual precipi tation and surface water resources in the Yi2Shu2Si Basin

Based on the hy dr olog ical data in the Yi2Shu2Si Basin fr om 1956 t o 2010, the linear r egr essio n, Mann2Kendall test, cu2 mulat ive depar ture method, and w avelet analy sis w ere applied to ana lyze t he var iatio n tr end and periodicity of annual precipitat i2 o n and surface w ater r eso ur ces. The r esults showed that the annual pr ecipitatio n and surface w ater resources have the similar variatio n tr end w ith an ov erall insignificant decr easing t rend, and decr ease co nt inuo usly in the future; the annual precipitatio n and sur face w ater r eso urces have ex per ienced fo ur per io ds with w et and dr y ones in tur n, and the decreasing tendency of annual surf ace w ater r eso urces is higher than that of annual pr ecipitatio n; and annual precipit at ion has main cycles o f 4 year s, 8 y ears, 15 years, and 27 year s, and annua l surface water r eso ur ces have main cycles of 4 years, 14 year s, and 27 y ears. T he trend analy sis show ed that annual precipitation and sur face w ater resources co nt inue to decrease in the nex t decade in t he Yi2Shu2Si Basin.