| 几类预测模型模拟精度的比较 |
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| 引用本文： | 罗党,吕健.几类预测模型模拟精度的比较[J].华北水利水电学院学报,2004,25(3):78-80. |
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| 作者姓名： | 罗党 吕健 |
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| 作者单位： | 华北水利水电学院数学科学系,河南,郑州,450011;南京航空航天大学,江苏,南京,210016;华北水利水电学院数学科学系,河南,郑州,450011 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(10071074)，河南省教育厅科研基金资助项目(2003120012). |
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| 摘 要： | 依据创新产品的扩散特性,建立了残差Verhulst模型及优化Verhulst模型,通过实例对Bass模型、残差Verhulst模型及优化Verhulst模型的模拟精度进行比较,发现残差Verhulst模型模拟精度较高
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| 关 键 词： | Bass模型 残差Verhulst模型 优化Verhulst模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-5634(2004)03-0078-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年3月30日 |
The Comparison with Several Prediction Models in Accuracy of Simulation |
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| LUO Dang.The Comparison with Several Prediction Models in Accuracy of Simulation[J].Journal of North China Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power,2004,25(3):78-80. |
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| Authors: | LUO Dang |
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| Abstract: | First diffusion characteristics of innovational product are discussed and Grey remnant Verhulst model and Grey optimal Verhulst model are established and then the two optimal models with Bass model in accuracy of simulation are compared based on a case.It can be concluded that Grey remnant Verhulst model guarantees higher accuracy of simulation than other models. |
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| Keywords: | Bass model Grey remnant Verhulst model Grey optimal Verhulst model |
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