Redundancy-based service life assessment of corroded reinforced concrete elements considering parameter uncertainties

In order to assess the structural reliability and redundancy with respect to deterioration, appropriate models have to be selected which adequately describe the deterioration process. The parameters associated with these models have to be estimated based on statistical inference. In general, the uncertainties that arise from the estimation of parameters are not accounted for in reliability assessment and the obtained structural reliability indices are assumed to be constant values. When parameter uncertainties are considered, the structural reliability index can, however, be considered as a random variable which inevitably influences the full-probabilistic decision-making process. Furthermore, the structural reliability indices which are used in a reliability-based redundancy factor can be considered as random variables. Hence, this redundancy factor itself is a random variable as well. In this paper, a full-probabilistic framework is developed which allows for the service life assessment of reinforced concrete elements subjected to corrosion based on a probability-based redundancy factor and taking into account parameter uncertainties. It is proven that these parameter uncertainties have a significant influence on the lifetime estimates of concrete elements subjected to corrosion. Finally, a simplified method is proposed which allows to incorporate parameter uncertainties in the redundancy assessment.