防灾投资和土地利用的不确定性社会经济模型

在国内首次建立了防灾投资和土地利用的不确定性社会经济模型。与以往经济学模型的区别在于：首先把握住了灾害的不确定性，并将治水投资与现代社会的购地选择行为相联系。在此基础上引入多地域一般均衡理论，用不确定状况下的效用理论把握消费者的行为，用随机效用理论把握消费者经济主体价值观的多样性。该社会经济学模型不但可以把握不确定条件下的各社会经济主体的行为，分析防灾投资的效果，而且可以分析与防灾投资相联系的地区选择行为的运行机制。本文还以国内某地区的治水投资和土地利用预测实例说明了本经济学模型的实用性。

Social Economic Model of Anti-disaster Investment and Soil Utilization Uncertainty

The uncertain socioeconomic model is first built that of investment preventing from disaster and soil utilizing. Compared with economic model built before, the uncertainty of disaster was mastered first, and investment preventing from flood was connected with the choosing action of soil purchasing. On this basis, multi-area general equilibrium theory was quoted, the action of consumer was studied by utility theory under the condition of uncertainty, the diverse value view of consumer, that is economic main body was researched by random utility theory. The socioeconomic not only can master the action of diverse social economic main body under the condition of uncertainty, analyze the effect of investment preventing from disaster, but also can analyze the running mechanism of the choosing area action connecting with investment preventing from disaster. This paper illustrates the practicability of this economic model by the investment preventing from flood and knowing in advance the effect of soil utilizing in a certain area inside the country.