煤矿瓦斯爆炸模糊Bow-tie模型分析

为了有效评价煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故的风险等级，利用模糊Bow-tie模型对煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故进行定性和定量分析。定量分析过程中，首先利用模糊综合评价法计算事故发生的概率；其次利用层次分析法对事故后果进行综合评价；最后运用风险矩阵进行瓦斯爆炸事故风险评价。研究结果表明：煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险等级属于高风险，应以预防为主，尽量避免事故发生。模糊Bow-tie模型通过对事故原因提出预防措施以避免事故发生，同时对事故后果提出控制措施以减轻事故伤害，建立了两道有效的安全屏障进行风险管控。

Analysis of fuzzy Bow-tie model of gas explosion in coal mine

In order to evaluate the risk level of gas explosion in coal mine accident effectively, the fuzzy Bow-tie model was used to make qualitative and quantitative analysis of gas explosion accidents in coal mine.In the process of quantitative analysis, firstly, the probability of accident was calculated by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method; secondly, the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)was further used to comprehensively evaluate the consequence of the accident; finally, the risk matrix was used to evaluate the risk of gas explosion accident.The research results show that the risk level of gas explosion in coal mine is high risk, so prevention should be given priority to and accidents should be avoided as far as possible.The fuzzy Bow-tie model avoids accidents by proposing preventive measures for the causes of accidents, and at the same time proposes control measures for accident consequences to reduce accident injuries, it establishes two effective safety barriers for risk control.