国际环境不确定下海外采矿权评估研究

在实物期权理论框架下,基于Black-Schole采矿权评估模型,提出了计量国际环境不确定性的方法以及将其纳入评估模型的途径,以此优化完善海外采矿权评估; 通过一实例验证了本文所述方法的可行性,并依据评估结果进一步分析了投资策略,最后对所提方法的可靠性进行了检验。研究结果显示: ① 采矿权价值来自于矿业权人对矿产资源的开采加工及具有灵活经营的权利,国际环境的不确定变化影响采矿权价值及投资策略。② 矿产品价格升高、价格波动率增加、驻在国矿业行业环境和国家环境变异程度的增加、矿山服务年限的增加,均提高了海外采矿权价值; 但矿产品价格下降、矿山服务年限减少将降低采矿权价值。③ 当矿产品价格持续处于低位时,项目应尽早建设或放弃; 而当价格处于增长或高位时,项目可适当推迟建设。④ 老挝矿业行业环境的变异程度大于该国国家环境的变异程度,前往老挝投资的矿企应重点关注该国涉及矿业投资的法律法规及政策,重点防范行业风险。⑤ 本文所提海外采矿权评估方法是可行、可靠的,具有一定实践意义。

Evaluation of Overseas Mining Rights Under Uncertain International Environment

Under the framework of real options theory, based on the Black-Schole mining right evaluation model, a method to measure the uncertainty of the international environment and a way to incorporate it into the evaluation model were proposed, so as to optimize and improve the evaluation of overseas mining right. The feasibility of this method was verified with an example, and the investment strategy was also analyzed based on the evaluation results. Finally, the reliability of the proposed method is tested. It is found that: ① The value of mining rights comes from the mining and processing of mineral resources, and the right to flexibly operate by the rights holders. The uncertain changes in the international environment will bring impact to the value of mining rights and investment strategies. ② Rising prices for mineral products, greater price fluctuation, greater variability in the mining industry environment and national environment in the country of residence, and the prolonged mine service life all have increased the value of overseas mining rights. However, the decline in the price of mineral products and the reduction in the service life of mines will reduce the value of mining rights. ③ When the price of mineral products keeps lower, the project should be constructed as soon as possible or abandoned. When the price is rising or becomes higher, the project construction can be postponed appropriately. ④ The variation in the environment of Laos mining industry is greater than that in the national environment. Mining companies investing in Laos should focus on the country's laws, regulations and policies regarding mining investment, as well as prevention of industry risks. ⑤ The evaluation method of overseas mining rights mentioned in this paper, being feasible and reliable, is of some practical significance.