杏北油田稳产参数的确定及稳产趋势分析

国内外各种研究资料表明，评价油田稳产能力的参数主要有剩余储采比和可采储量采出程度。在“八五”期间，针对大庆油田的开发状况，采用两者的乘积——稳油能力指数作为评价稳产能力参数。但对于杏北开发区来说，这3个评价参数均没有达到理想的符合程度。为此，考虑到采油速度对稳产的影响，引入了稳产趋势指数的概念。结合杏北开发区实际情况及对3个主要区块稳产条件的解剖，分析了各种表征稳产趋势地质开发参数与稳产的相关性。研究发现，稳产趋势指数的符合程度最高，达到了79％。以此为指导对各区块及开发区进行了稳产趋势预测，为杏北油田的可持续发展提供依据。

Parameter Determination and Tendency Analysis of Production Stabilizing in Xingbei Oilfield

Lots of domestic and foreign experimental data shows that proportion between remaining reserve and the rate of production and recovery percent of recoverable reserves are the most important parameters in the evaluation of the production stabilizing ability. Exploration and Development Research Institute of Daqing Oilfield had used the production stabilizing exponent, which is the product of both the above mentioned parameters,as the parameters in the evaluation of the production stabilizing ability during the 8th five-year plan. But to Xingbei Oilfield none of the above mentioned parameters was perfect. So this paper introduces the production stabilizing tendency exponent taking account of the rate of production. On the basis of the researching of all kinds of production factors of Xingbei Oilfield, this paper analyzes the correlativity between the oil production and various geological parameters in the evaluation of the production tendency and finds that the produce steadily tendency exponent has the highest accord by 79%. At the same time,this paper predicts the stable production tendency of Xingbei Oilfield and provide the basis for its sustainable development.