新能源消纳影响因素的贡献度评估模型

准确评估新能源消纳影响因素的贡献度是制定新能源消纳解决措施的重要依据之一。总结2017年中国新能源消纳取得的成就，从源、网、荷、市场机制等方面分析影响新能源消纳的主要因素，将影响因素进行量化建模，建立基于时序生产模拟的新能源消纳影响因素的贡献度评估模型。以甘肃电网风电消纳为案例，评估2017年各种影响因素促进风电消纳的贡献度。分析表明，在负荷增长、跨区外送、省间电量交换、备用容量共享、省内断面能力提升、自备电厂替代交易等多种因素的共同作用下，2017年甘肃风电消纳状况明显改善，其中负荷增长的贡献度最大，其次是跨区外送和备用容量共享。

Contribution Evaluating Model for the New Energy Accommodation Influencing Factors

Evaluating the contributions of the new energy accommodation influencing factors of is one of the most important issues to improve the current consumption status. This paper summarized the current achievements of China new energy accommodation in 2017, analyzed the major influencing factors of new energy accommodation from the perspectives of power mix, power grid, load and market mechanism. The influencing factors contribution evaluating model was established based on chronological production simulation. Taking Gansu wind power accommodation as an example, the contribution of various factors to promote wind power consumption was studied. The results showed that, Gansu wind power accommodation had great achievements with the joint efforts of all factors, including power load increase, cross-district deliberating, generation exchange different provinces, power reverse capacity shared, captive plant exchange trade and so on. The largest contribution was the power load increment and followed by cross-district deliberating and power reverse capacity shared.