中国能源消费结构与雾霾污染的关系——基于中国省域空间数据的分析与预测

首先选取多重指标对中国能源消费结构与雾霾污染现状进行描述，然后选取中国30个省市2001—2015年的面板数据，运用空间计量方法对能源消费结构对雾霾污染的影响进行实证检验，最后对中国能源消费结构的变化趋势，以及能源消费结构对雾霾污染的影响进行预测性分析。研究结果显示：1）整体上，我国现有能源消费结构一定程度上会加剧雾霾污染，尽管煤炭消费占比最高，但其单位消费占比对雾霾污染的影响并非最大；2）我国东部地区能源消费结构更加多样化，对煤炭能源的依赖性较低；3）不同雾霾污染物的空间分布也不尽相同，就全国而言，雾霾污染呈现“一荣俱荣，一损俱损”的现状。

RELATION BETWEEN ENERGY CONSUMPTION STRUCTURE AND HAZE POLLUTION IN CHINA BASED ON CHINA'S PROVINCIAL

This paper selects indexes to study the status of China's energy consumption structure and haze pollution, and uses spatial computing to experimentally check the impacts of China's energy consumption structure on haze pollution based on 30 provinces' panel data 2001 to 2015, and forecasts the trend of China's energy consumption structure and its impacts on haze pollution. Generally, China's existing energy consumption structure worsens haze pollution to some extent. Coal is the largest energy consumption in China, but it is not the biggest factor on haze pollution at its unit consumption proportion. Eastern China diversifies its energy consumption structure with less independence on coal. Haze pollution varies with areas, but on the same boat with energy consumption structure nationwide.