广东省极端降水时空分布特征研究

广东省是极端降水多发区,为分析广东省极端降水的时空分布的主要特征,选取2013年1月1日至2017年3月16日之间共1 553 d的3 370个站点逐时降水量资料,并运用统计学、热点和泛克里金方法进行分析计算。研究结果显示,极端降水量主要集中在4—10月,约占全年降水的78%,广东省的极端降水量与极端降水场次的空间分布基本一致。从不同区域看,广东省极端降水空间分布不均匀,粤东汕尾—汕头—揭阳、粤西阳江—茂名、粤北韶关南部、珠三角江门—惠州北部等地区发生极端降水的总场次达57 756场,占比达到71%,韶关—清远北部、梅州西部—河源北部、云浮东北部和肇庆西部等地区发生极端降水的总场次达23 590场,占比只达到29%,沿海地区发生极端降水的总场次为55 315场,占比达到68%。极端降水由沿海到内陆呈现递减趋势,沿海发生极端降水远远多于内陆地区。极端降水在空间上大致呈现东、西、北部少,中、南部多的格局,极端降水由南向北呈带状递减。研究成果可为制定适应气候变化的水资源管理及防洪策略提供参考。

Study on spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of extreme precipitation in Guangdong Province

It is prone to extreme precipitation in Guangdong Province. In this paper，the hourly precipitation of 1 553 days of 3 370 sites from January 1 in 2013 to March 16 in 2017 are selected. Using statistical method，hot spot analysis and pan Kriging method，the main characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution of extreme precipitation are analyzed in Guangdong Province. The results show that the extreme precipitation is mainly concentrated from April to October，accounting for about 78% of the annual precipitation. The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation and extreme precipitation events in Guangdong is basically the same. From different regions，the spatial distribution of extreme precipitation in Guangdong Province is uneven. The total number of extreme precipitation events in Shanwei-Shantou-Jieyang，Yangjiang in westun Guangdong-Maoming，Shaoguan in northern Guangdong and Jiangmen-Huizhou in the pearl river delta reaches 57 756，accounting for 71% . The total number of extreme precipitation events in Shaoguan-Qingyuan north，Meizhou west-Heyuan north，Yunfu northeast and Zhaoqing west reaches 23 590，accounting for only 29% . Meanwhile the total number of extreme precipitation events in coastal areas reaches 55 315，accounting for 68% . Extreme precipitation shows a decreasing trend from coast to interior，and the occurrence of extreme precipitation along the coast is far greater than that in interior regions. The extreme precipitation is less in the east，west and north，but more in the middle and south. The extreme precipitation decreases from south to north in a band shape. The research results can provide new discoveries for the analysis of the characteristics of extreme precipitation changes in Guangdong Province and provide theoretical references for the formulation of water resources management and flood control strategies adapted to climate change.