基于Markov演化博弈的网络防御策略选取方法

当前运用博弈理论的网络安全研究大多采用完全理性假设，本文针对现实社会中攻防双方的有限理性限制条件和攻防过程的动态变化特征，基于非合作演化博弈理论，从有限理性约束出发，将演化博弈模型与Markov决策相结合，构建多阶段Markov攻防演化博弈模型，实现对多阶段、多状态攻防对抗的动态分析推演；依据博弈的折扣总收益设计目标函数，提出多阶段博弈均衡的求解方法，给出最优防御策略选取算法.通过实验验证了模型和方法的有效性.

Network Defense Strategy Selection Method Based on Markov Evolutionary Game

Most research of network security based on the traditional game theory use completely rational assumption.For the condition of bounded rationality and the characteristic of dynamic changing process,we combined the evolutionary game model with Markov decision-making process based on the theory of non-cooperative evolutionary game,which is on the restraint of bounded rationality.Thus we constructed a multi-stage Markov attack-defense evolutionary game model to achieve multi-stage and multi-state dynamic analysis and evolution.Besides,on the basis of the sum discount payoffs to design objective function,the method to solve the evolutionary stable equilibrium was proposed,and the optimal defense strategy selection algorithm was provided.Finally,the validity of the model and method is validated by numerical simulation.