水利工程施工安全影响因素风险率的动态演变分析

为探究水利工程施工系统动态变化过程,并获取安全影响因素风险率的演变规律,引用模糊认知图理论对高危作业事故中人为影响因素风险率进行动态推演分析。首先,运用修订后的人为因素分类与分析系统(HFACS)辨识高危作业中关键人为影响因素,并依据各因素间的因果联系及模糊认知图理论,构建水利工程施工风险因素关联模型。然后,根据风险率初始值及影响权重,采用模糊认知图的推理机制对影响因素风险率进行推演分析。结果表明,在水利工程施工系统动态演变过程中,直觉与决策差错、人员素质、操作违规分别是施工前、中、后期对系统安全性影响最大的因素,该推演方法可有效模拟水利工程施工中人为影响因素风险率的演变过程,具有较高的合理性。

Analysis on risk rate dynamic evolution of factor to impact construction safety of water conservancy project

In order to explore the dynamic change of water conservancy project construction system and acquire the evolution law of the risk rates of the factors to impact the safety，the risk rates of the human impacting factors in the accidents from the highrisk operation are dynamically deduced and analyzed herein through applying the fuzzy cognitive map theory. The key human impacting factors in the high-risk operation are identified with the revised human factors analysis and classification system (HFACS)，and then a correlation model of water conservancy project construction risk factors is established in accordance with the causalities among all the factors as well as the fuzzy cognitive map theory. Afterwards，the risk rates of impacting factors are dynamically deduced and analyzed with the reasoning mechanism of fuzzy cognitive map in accordance with the initial value and impacting weight. The result shows that during the dynamic evolution of the construction system of water conservancy project，the intuition and decision errors，personnel quality，and operational violations are the largest factors to impact the safety of the system within the earlier，medium and late periods of construction respectively. This deduction method can effectively simulate the evolution process of the risk rate of human impacting factor in the construction of water conservancy project and has a higher reasonability.