水资源承载力预测模型研究

水资源承载力预测结果反映了水资源安全状况。通过运用常规趋势法评估中山市水资源承载力,并构建中山市水资源承载力SD系统模型,对比分析常规发展模式和不同政策发展情景下的中山市水资源承载力。研究表明:(1)常规发展模式下到2020年、2030年水资源承载能力判断系数β分别为-0. 28与-0. 27,中山市未来存在一定程度的缺水;(2)产业结构调整方案和用水定额调整方案对中山市水资源承载力系统现状改善明显,但缺水程度依然存在;(3)运用节水型城市综合优化方案,到2020年、2030年水资源承载能力判断系数β分别为0. 32与0. 44。节水型城市综合优化方案能最有效地解决未来中山市水资源供需不平衡问题。研究成果可为中山市水资源管理提供参考与科学依据。

Study on prediction model of water resources carrying capacity

The prediction results of water resources carrying capacity reflect the water resources security situation. The water resources carrying capacity of Zhongshan is evaluated using conventional trend method. Meanwhile，the suitable SD system model is established for water resources carrying capacity in Zhongshan City. The water resources carrying capacity is analyzed in Zhongshan City with the conventional development model under different policy development scenarios. We find that the judgment coefficient β of water resources carrying capacity is － 0. 28 in 2020 and － 0. 27 in 2030 within the conventional development mode，which reflects the degree of lack of water. If we only adjust the industrial structure and the water quota scheme，the water resources carrying capacity system of Zhongshan City will be obviously improved，but the degree of water shortage still exists. The judgment coefficient β of water resources carrying capacity will be 0. 32 and 0. 44 respectively within the comprehensive optimization scheme of water-saving city. The comprehensive optimization scheme of water-saving city can resolve the problem of water supply and demand imbalance in Zhongshan City in the future most effectively. These results provide reference and scientific basis for water resources management of Zhongshan City.