非参数解集模型及其在水文随机模拟中的应用

解集模型是水文随机模拟的重要工具之一，它能保持总量与分量、分量与分量在时间尺度或空间尺度上的方差、协方差结构和其它统计特性。传统解集模型是对序列相依结构和概率密度函数形式作某种假定后用参数来描述的，因而有其自身的缺陷。文献［１］提出的非参数解集模型就避开了上述假定，克服了传统解集模型的不足。本文介绍非参数解集模型并应用于金沙江流域屏山站月径流随机解集。研究结果表明该模型适合于水文随机模拟。

Nonparametric Disaggregation Model and It'-s Application Hydrologic Stochastic Simulation

Disaggregation models are one of the important tools for stochastic simulation of hydrologic series.They can preserve variance,covariance and other statistical properties for lower level variables as well as those for lower level variables in time or space.Traditional parametric disaggregation models have some drawbacks because they are described based on certain assumption to form of sequential dependence and the form of probability density fumction.The proposed nonparametric disaggregation model avoids above mentioned assumption and improves traditional parametric disaggregation model.In this paper,nonparametric disaggregation model was introduced and applied to stochastic simulation for monthly runoff at Ping Shan station in the Sha Jiang River.The results show that the NPDM model applies to hydrologic stochastic simulation.