基于Bayes Monte Carlo方法的复杂系统平均剩余寿命评估方法

讨论了复杂系统平均剩余寿命评估的问题,首先基于先验信息和试验样本数据利用Bayes Monte Carlo方法给出了单个设备可靠性参数,然后结合系统的组成结构,求出系统可靠度函数,接着根据可靠度和平均剩余寿命之间的关系,建立复杂系统平均剩余寿命评估模型并给出具体的评估算法,最后,通过实例验证,表明本文的方法较为精确,能够满足工程的实际需求。

Research on evaluation of mean residual life of complex system based on Bayes Monte Carlo method

The evaluation of mean residual life of complex system is discussed in this paper.First,the sing1e equipment’s reliability parameter is derived by Bayes Monte Carlo method,based on prior information and test information.Second,the system reliability function is derived based on system structure.The evaluation model of the mean residual life of complex system is established from the relationship between reliability and mean residual life,and the evaluation algorithm is given.Third,the good performances of the methods are shown in this paper by a real example.