A Total Operating Cost Model for Paced Lines with Stochastic Task Times

This paper presents a method for evaluating the often neglected component, the expected incompletion cost, of the operating cost of a paced line with stochastic task times. This incompletion cost is developed through a three stage process. First presented is a procedure for generating all possible combinations of incompleted tasks. Next is an evaluation of the probabilities and costs of their occurrence. Included are not only a mechanism for generating only those incompletion combinations with a significant probability of occurring, but also various techniques for reducing computer storage requirements and computation time. Finally, these make possible an evaluation of the operating cost of paced lines.