Simulating the effects of climate change,economic and urban planning scenarios on urban runoff patterns of a metropolitan region

Urban development and climate change are expected to have significant effects on urban stormwater runoff. In this study, the Dynamic Urban Water Simulation Model (DUWSiM) is applied to Dublin, Ireland, to explore urban runoff patterns under varying urban growth and climate scenarios. Results show that annual urban runoff could decrease by 3.0% from climate change and monthly runoff could increase by 30% in winter and decrease by 28% in summer. Results also indicate that urban growth could increase annual runoff by up to 15%. The combined effect of climatic and land-use change generated runoff may potentially increase annual totals from between 2.9% to 21%. Monthly changes in runoff totals could increase by up to 57%. Accommodating these variations in runoff between the scenarios, flexible decentralised systems such as green roofs and pervious pavements, have a vital role in increasing the adaptability and long term sustainability of water infrastructure.