发电系统可靠性评估的盲数模型和指标

利用发电系统可靠性的简化概念，将发电和负荷两类变量转化成盲数并通过盲数运算建立了关于电量全局充裕度评估模型，然后提出了相应的两个指标：发电系统可靠性盲数期望GRBE和盲数可信度GRBC，并利用IEEE—RTS的相关负荷数据，在Monte-Carlo模拟产生发电量数据的情况下对模型和指标进行了的验证和讨论。结果表明，此盲数模型对于发电系统充裕度评估具有一定的宏观参考价值。对应的两个指标能从量及其分布的角度对系统长期的电能供需情况作出近似的指示。

BLIND-NUMBER MODEL AND INDICES FOR POWER GENERATING SYSTEM RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT

After a concise introduction to blind number and using the simplified concept of reliability of power generating system, the two kinds of variables, i.e., the power generation and the loads, are transformed into blind numbers and through the blind number operation a global abundance assessment model for electricity energy is established, then two corresponding indices called generating system blind-number expectation (GRBE) and generating system blind-number confidence (GRBC) are put forward respectively. Besides, using the relevant load data from IEEE-RTS and the generation data produced by Monte-Carlo simulation both the model and indices are verified. The results of verification show that the proposed blind number model is available for reference. The long-term power supply-demand situation can be approxima-tely denoted by the two corresponding indices in the aspects of power quantity and distribution.