基于云模型与信息融合的渡槽安全评价方法

在南水北调工程中，渡槽是关键的长距离输水建筑物之一，其运行安全关系到整个跨流域输水系统的稳定。针对渡槽的工作性态评价，以渡槽监测数据的建模分析成果为基础，采用不确定性问题研究常用的云模型与数据融合方法进一步处理，提出了一种基于云模型理论与多个测点预测分析结果相融合的渡槽安全综合评价方法，该方法依靠渡槽安全预测模型的分析结果来对渡槽运行情况作出评价，有效避免了评价过程的主观性。结果表明：该方法依据预测模型的分析结果可以准确评价渡槽的工作性态，为渡槽的安全综合评价提供了一种新的方法。

Aqueduct safety evaluation method based on cloud model and information fusion

Aqueduct is an important long-distance water conveyance structure in the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, and its operation safety is crucial to the stability of the whole trans-basin water conveyance system. Aiming at the aqueduct performance evaluation, based on the modeling and analysis results of the monitoring data of an aqueduct, a comprehensive evaluation method of the aqueduct safety based on the fusion of the cloud model theory and the prediction and analysis results of several monitoring points was proposed by the cloud model and data fusion method commonly used in the study of uncertainty problems. When evaluating the performance of an aqueduct, this method relies on the analysis results of the aqueduct safety prediction model, which effectively avoids the subjectivity of the evaluation process. Experimental results show that this method can accurately evaluate the working behavior of the aqueduct according to the analysis results of the prediction model, so it can provide a new approach for the comprehensive safety evaluation of aqueducts.