淮河流域水资源短缺风险评估与时空分析

根据2003-2013年淮河流域五省的降水量、径流系数、人均水资源量、人均GDP、人口密度等相关数据,构建水资源短缺风险评价体系,用熵权法对指标赋值,运用可变模糊模型对淮河流域及各省的水资源短缺风险进行评估和时空差异分析。结果表明:2003-2013年间淮河流域水资源短缺风险值总体较高,且呈缓慢的增长趋势,2004年降水较少,风险值达到最高;十年间河南省风险增加最为明显,而山东省较为稳定,风险增加也最低;在淮河流域五个区域中,河南省的风险程度最高,达到3.52;江苏省、山东省次之;安徽省和湖北省相对较低,达到2.86和2.51。水资源短缺风险二级指标分析发现,危险性最强的是河南省,安徽省最小;水资源短缺易损性最强的是山东省,湖北省最小;水资源短缺暴露性最强的是江苏省,山东省最小;水资源短缺可恢复性最好的是湖北省,河南省最差。同时,所有评价指标中人口密度、人均GDP、降水量对水资源短缺风险的影响较大。

The risk assessment and space-time analysis of water resources shortage in Huaihe River Basin

Based on the statistical data of precipitation, runoff coefficient, per-capita water resources, GDP per capita, and population density from 2003 to 2013 in the 5 provinces of Huaihe River Basin, we conducted a comprehensive risk assessment of the water resources shortage in Huaihe River Basin and each province by building a risk assessment system and using the variable fuzzy model and entropy weight method. The results showed that the overall risk of water shortage in the Huaihe River Basin during 2003-2013 was relatively high and showed a trend of slow growth. The risk reached the highest in 2004 when the precipitation was little. During the ten years, the increase of risk in Henan province was the most pronounced, whereas Shandong province was relatively stable with the smallest increase of risk. Henan province had the highest degree of risk among the five regions in the Huaihe River Basin, reaching 3.52. It was followed by Jiangsu province and Shandong province, while Anhui and Hubei provinces had relatively low risks, which were 2.86 and 2.51 respectively. The analysis of the secondary indicators of water shortage risk revealed that Henan province faced the highest threat while Anhui province faced the lowest. Shandong province was the most vulnerable to water shortage while Hubei province was the least vulnerable. Jiangsu province was the most exposed to water shortage while Shandong province was the least exposed. Hubei province had the best restorability from water shortage while Henan province had the worst restorability. Moreover, population density, GDP per capita, and precipitation had a great impact on water shortage risk.