河道洪水演算的MC-RCM模型及其比较研究

MC-RCM模型是一种在马斯京根法的基础上引入水位流量曲线的洪水演算方法,为进一步验证MC-RCM模型在实际河段中及不同演算条件下的精确性,分别采用试错法、最小二乘法、马斯京根—康吉法及MC-RCM模型四种演算方法对长江李庄至泸县段的10例天然洪水进行流量演算分析,并引入五种评价指标,比较了MC-RCM模型与其他演算方法在不同演算时段下流量演算精度、演算可靠性、演算洪峰流量精度等方面的优劣。结果表明,MC-RCM模型在流量演算精度、演算可靠性、演算洪峰流量精度上相比其他方法均具有一定优势,且在较长演算时段中优势更为明显。因此,MC-RCM模型作为河道洪水演算的可靠方法,可在水文资料充分的情况下修正或校验马斯京根法的演算成果。

Comparative Study of Flood Routing Method Based on MC-RCM

MC-RCM is a flood routing method on the basis of Muskingum-Cunge with the introduction of rating curve. In order to further validate the accuracy of RCM -MC model in the practical river section and different calculation conditions, natural flood routing of 10 cases in the section of Lizhuang to Luxian county in the Yangtse River was analyzed with the method of trial and error, the least square method, Muskingum-Cunge method (MC) and MC-RCM model. By introducing five assessment indexes, the MC- RCM model was compared with other calculation methods for the calculation precision, reliability, the accuracy of peak flow in different time intervals. Compared with other methods, the results show that the MC-RCM model has some advantages, and it has obviously superiority for flood routing in long time interval. Therefore, the MC-RCM model is a reliable method for river flood routing, which can be used to modify or calibrate the Muskingum model with hydrological data.