赣江流域气候和土地利用变化对蓝绿水的影响

采用标准化降水指数(SPI)确定赣江流域的典型年,基于SWAT模型,对典型年份赣江流域蓝绿水的时空分布进行了分析；设置多种气候与土地利用情景,定量分析了气候和土地利用变化对流域内蓝绿水的影响。结果表明:1972年、1998年和2014年分别为赣江流域的干旱年、湿润年和正常年；湿润年的蓝水量最为丰富,是干旱年的2.01倍,绿水量的变化相对稳定,干旱年绿水系数最高,是湿润年的1.44倍；土地利用变化对蓝绿水的时空分布影响较小；气候变化情景下蓝水量、绿水量分别增加了75.52mm和30.65mm,绿水系数减小了2.33%,共同变化情景下蓝绿水变化趋势与气候变化情景大致相同,表明气候变化对流域蓝绿水的影响较大。

Effects of climate and land use changes on blue and green water in the Ganjiang River Basin

Typical years in the Ganjiang River Basin were identified according to the standardized precipitation index (SPI). Based on the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model, this study analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution of blue and green water in the Ganjiang River Basin in typical years. A variety of climate and land use scenarios were set to quantitatively analyze the effects of climate and land use changes on the blue and green water in the basin. The results show that the drought year, wet year, and normal year were 1972,1998, and 2014, respectively. The blue water content was the most abundant in the wet year, which was 2.01 times that in the dry year, while the change of the green water content was relatively stable. The green water coefficient was the highest in the dry year, which was 1.44 times that in the wet year. The change of land use had little effect on the spatial and temporal distribution of blue and green water. Under the climate change scenario, the blue and green water contents increased by 75.52.mm and 30.65.mm, respectively, and the green water coefficient decreased by 2.33%, while change trend of the blue and green water under the common change scenario was roughly the same as that under the climate change scenario, indicating that the climate change had a greater impact on the blue and green water in the basin.