人群聚集预警中基于断面双向流量比的客流误差分析

针对密集人群的安全预警管理,结合商业街人流相向运动的特点,提出通过断面双向流量比进行人群聚集风险预警的思路,并对该方法的误差进行了理论分析和实例验证.结果表明该方法用于商业街聚集人群的风险预警时,不论测量值大于真实值还是测量值小于真实值,经过断面进出比的比值误差均比客流统计系统本身误差更小,从而使客流统计产品在一定范围内精确度有所提高.此外,可应用此方法根据实际要求的测量精度为客流统计设备选型提供依据.

Error analisis of passager flow based on the bi-directional flow ratio of the section in crowd gathering early-warning

An early warning method for the risk of crowd gathering based on the bi-directional flow ratio of the section was proposed according to the characteristics of the opposite movement of pedestrian flow at the business street. Its error was analyzed in theory and verified by an example.It is found that using this method as a criterion of crowded events is feasible.Whether the measured values are greater or less than the true values,the error of the ratio between the inward and the outward flow across the section is less than that from a pedestrian flow statistic system,so the method is helpful for improving the accuracy of crowd statistic tools to some extent.In addition,the method can be used as a reference in selecting the type of a pedestrian flow statistic system according to requirements for the measuring accuracy of actual applications.