| 用于多小水电地区日发电负荷预测的新型组合预测法 |
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| 引用本文： | 全戈,黄民翔,周苗菲. 用于多小水电地区日发电负荷预测的新型组合预测法[J]. 能源工程, 2011, 0(4): 20-26 |
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| 作者姓名： | 全戈 黄民翔 周苗菲 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 浙江大学电气工程学院,浙江杭州,310027
2. 丽水电业局,浙江丽水,323000 |
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| 摘 要： | 探讨了小水电发电负荷时间序列的相关特性,描述了其与传统用电负荷时间序列的差异,并在此基础上提出了一种针对小水电日发电负荷预测的新型组合预测法.实例仿真证明,该方法能够较好地反映小水电负荷受降水影响的不确定性和在峰谷电价时段波动规律的差异性,对多小水电地区短期负荷预测具有实用价值和参考意义.
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| 关 键 词： | 小水电 发电负荷预测 小波变换 组合预测模型 |
Application of new combination forecasting method in daily generation forecasting for regions with abundant small hydropower |
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| QUAN Ge,HUANG Min-xiang,ZHOU Miao-fei. Application of new combination forecasting method in daily generation forecasting for regions with abundant small hydropower[J]. Energy Engineering, 2011, 0(4): 20-26 |
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| Authors: | QUAN Ge HUANG Min-xiang ZHOU Miao-fei |
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| Affiliation: | 1.College of Electrical Engineering,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310027,China;2.Lishui Power Supply Bureau,Lishui 323000,China) |
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| Abstract: | Characteristics of typical SHP load time series were discussed and the differences with the load time series of traditional power systems were described.In addition,a new combination forecasting strategy was proposed for daily generation forecasting of SHP.Numerical testing shows that this method can give better considerations of the influence of peak-and-valley electricity rates and uncertain relativity of precipitation information,which has practical and reference value on STLF for regions with abundant SHP. |
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| Keywords: | small hydropower generation forecasting wavelet transform combination forecasting model |
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