黑龙江流域气温突变诊断及极值重现期分析

以黑龙江流域44个站点1954~2012年共59年的日气温资料为基础,应用Mann-Kendall法和启发式分割算法,分别对44个站点的年平均气温做气温突变诊断。根据气温突变诊断结果对比分析,选取启发式分割算法结果对年极值序列进行分割,并检验前、后子序列是否服从同一分布。由此应用GEV函数拟合黑龙江流域6个子区域年极值序列,研究其年极值的变化特征。结果表明,随着气温突变,黑龙江流域中部及西北部年最高气温产生明显增长;黑龙江流域中部年最低气温产生明显增长;黑龙江东部年极端气温受气候变化影响较小,无明显变化。

Climate Change Detection and Extreme Temperature Analysis of Heilongjiang Basin

Based on the 59 years daily temperature time series from 1954 to 2012 of 44 stations in Heilongjiang Basin, the climate changes of 44 stations were analyzed by using Mann Kendall method and heuristic segmentation algorithm. According to the results, GEV distribution was fitted to the annual extreme temperature series. Whether the sub series before and after segmentation obey the identical distribution was checked. The result of extreme temperature analysis shows that as the climate change, the stations that have severe positive change in the annual maximum temperature occur mainly in northwest and middle basin of the Heilongjiang Basin; the stations that have severe positive change in the annual minimum temperature occur mainly in middle basin of the Heilongjiang Basin; the stations in eastern basin have no significant change.