深圳市胸透普查肺结核阳性检出率合理性评价

本文根据国际ＢＳＳ建议的原则估算了深圳市胸透普查肺结核阳性检出率的正当化水平，其中对于寿命损失或延长的社会经济学价值采用了人力资本法，结果为阳性检出率应不小于４３．３／万，若只考虑辐射致癌可能造成的死亡率增加和杜绝肺结核传染源后可能的死亡率降低，则阳性检出率应不小于３．３２／万，深圳市１９９６年肺结核发病率为５．２５／万左右，显然已不宜采用胸透普查法。

ESTIMATION OF DISCOVERY RATE IN A JUSTIFIED SCREENING OF PULMONARY TUBERCULOSIS WITH CHEST FLUOROSCOPY IN SHENZHEN CITY

In this paper, the level of justified of the discovery rate in a screening of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) with chest fluoroscopy in Shenzhen City was estimated based on the principles recommended by IBBS. The results show that the justified discovery rate for TB should not be less than 0.43%. When the possible increase in moutality caused by radiation induced cancers and the possible decrease in mortality for TB caused by extinguishing the sources of infection were considered, the discovery rate for TB should not be less than 0.033% . It is obvious that use of chest fluoroscopy for screening of TB is unsuitable since the morbidity for TB in Shenzhen City was about 0.053% in 1996. (