Outcome of the depressed elderly living in the community in Liverpool: a 5-year follow-up

BACKGROUND: Comparatively little is known about the long-term natural history of depressive disorders in the elderly living in the community. This is a follow-up of a subsample of the Continuing Health in the Community study random sample of the elderly population living in Liverpool. METHODS: The investigators followed up 120 cases of depression identified by a semi-structured interview schedule (GMS) for a period of 5 years. A similar number of other subjects defined as subcases of depression, other cases of mental illness and a random selection of non-cases were also included. RESULTS: The 5-year outcome for the cases of depression was worse than the outcome of the non-cases (relative mortality risk of 2.1, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 3.9). Thirty-four per cent of the cases of depression died and 28% had dropped out during the follow-up. Of the 46 cases of depression who had a complete follow-up, 22% recovered from their symptoms, 30% were found to be AGECAT cases at one of the three follow-up waves, 24% were AGECAT cases at two of the three follow-up waves and the remaining 24% were AGECAT cases at each follow-up wave. Fifteen per cent of the surviving cases of depression were organic cases at the follow-up. Their anxiety comorbid state and depression score were identified as predictors of poor outcome. CONCLUSION: The findings of this study indicate that depressive disorders (most of which were untreated) found in the elderly community have a poor prognosis.