Distributional uncertainty analysis and robust optimization in spatially heterogeneous multiscale process systems

Multiscale models have been developed to simulate the behavior of spatially‐heterogeneous porous catalytic flow reactors, i.e., multiscale reactors whose concentrations are spatially‐dependent. While such a model provides an adequate representation of the catalytic reactor, model‐plant mismatch can significantly affect the reactor's performance in control and optimization applications. In this work, power series expansion (PSE) is applied to efficiently propagate parametric uncertainty throughout the spatial domain of a heterogeneous multiscale catalytic reactor model. The PSE‐based uncertainty analysis is used to evaluate and compare the effects of uncertainty in kinetic parameters on the chemical species concentrations throughout the length of the reactor. These analyses reveal that uncertainty in the kinetic parameters and in the catalyst pore radius have a substantial effect on the reactor performance. The application of the uncertainty quantification methodology is illustrated through a robust optimization formulation that aims to maximize productivity in the presence of uncertainty in the parameters. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 62: 2374–2390, 2016