配电网模糊优化规划(Ⅱ)——算例与分析

对一个具体的模糊规划算例进行了计算，首先分别进行了负荷、投资、电价等不确定性因素对规划方案的影响，然后分析了其综合影响。结果表明，是否考虑不确定性，所得到的规划方案可能不同。比如，考虑负荷的不确定性后，优化结果趋向于低网损的规划方案。考虑线路投资的不确定性后，优化方案趋向于模糊投资值小的规划方案。在综合考虑了几种不确定性因素后，优化结果趋向于网损低、投资风险小的规划方案。优化结果的趋向并不固定，这取决于各种不确定性因素的模糊值范围。所得的优化结果往往是一个折中方案，即此结果在各种因素的不确定性并存时最优。所以，在配电网规划中综合考虑各种不确定性因素非常必要，能够得到鲁棒性强的方案。

OPTIMIZED FUZZY PLANNING OF DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS Part Two Results and Analysis

With examples, the effects of several fuzzy factors (including load pattern, investment and price level) on network planning are analyzed separately and then considered as a whole. The results indicate that whether planning taking these effects into account will result in different schemes. For example, taking the uncertainty of load prediction into account will lead to the scheme with low power loss. Taking the uncertainty of investment into account will obtain the scheme with low investment risk. Composite consideration of the effects will reach a scheme with both low network loss and low investment risk. It is also shown that the tendency of the scheme is not definite, which depends on the range of uncertainty. The final scheme is usually a multi acceptable result, which is an optimum under several uncertain factors. Therefore, it is very necessary to take these fuzzy factors into consideration, and this will achieve a robust distribution network planning.